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␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓βS␈↓∧ Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, STANFORD UNIVERSITY, Stanford, California 94305

␈↓ ↓H␈↓∧Telephone 415 497-4430␈↓ 	↑February 11, 1978 




␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓↓Japan Times␈↓
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Tokyo
␈↓ ↓H␈↓JAPAN

␈↓ ↓H␈↓To the Editor:

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        As␈αan␈αAmerican␈αwho␈αhas␈αobserved␈αJapanese␈αmilitary,␈αpolitical,␈αand␈αintellectual␈αdependence
␈↓ ↓H␈↓on␈αthe␈αUnited␈αStates,␈αI␈αfeel␈αan␈αobligation␈αto␈αwarn␈αyou␈αthat␈αyou␈αcannot␈αcount␈αon␈αthe␈αUnited␈αStates
␈↓ ↓H␈↓any␈α
longer␈αin␈α
any␈αof␈α
these␈αareas.␈α
 You␈αcannot␈α
even␈αcount␈α
on␈αthe␈α
United␈αStates␈α
to␈αact␈α
in␈α
its␈αown
␈↓ ↓H␈↓national interest.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        This␈α⊃is␈α⊃because␈α⊃irrational␈α∩intellectual␈α⊃ideas␈α⊃dominate␈α⊃American␈α⊃politicians,␈α∩lawyers␈α⊃and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓bureaucrats␈α
under␈α
forty␈α
in␈αage.␈α
 This␈α
group␈α
is␈α
coming␈αinto␈α
power␈α
all␈α
over␈α
the␈αcountry.␈α
 Eventually
␈↓ ↓H␈↓these␈α
ideas␈α
will␈α
be␈α
overcome␈α
by␈α
unpleasant␈α
experience,␈αbut␈α
they␈α
can␈α
lead␈α
to␈α
disaster␈α
for␈α
Japan␈αif␈α
it
␈↓ ↓H␈↓doesn't␈α⊃resolutely␈α⊃become␈α⊃independent␈α⊃of␈α⊃the␈α⊃United␈α⊃States␈α⊃before␈α⊃their␈α⊃consequences␈α⊂become
␈↓ ↓H␈↓obvious within the United States.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        The␈α∞ideas␈α∞I␈α∞refer␈α∞to␈α∞are␈α∞environmental␈α∞extremism,␈α∞anti-technology,␈α∞a␈α∞guilt␈α∞complex␈α∞about
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈αsuccess␈αof␈αthe␈αAmerican␈αand␈αother␈αcapitalist␈αindustrial␈αeconomies,␈αa␈αbelief␈αthat␈αbusiness␈αis␈αthe
␈↓ ↓H␈↓enemy␈αof␈α
the␈αpeople,␈αunilateral␈α
disarmament,␈αand␈α
romantic␈αsupport␈αof␈α
communist␈αand␈αthird␈α
world
␈↓ ↓H␈↓dictatorships.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        One␈α∞cannot␈α∂predict␈α∞that␈α∂these␈α∞ideas␈α∂will␈α∞achieve␈α∂complete␈α∞dominance␈α∂-␈α∞there␈α∂are␈α∞counter
␈↓ ↓H␈↓trends␈α
that␈α
may␈α
win,␈αbut␈α
any␈α
country␈α
that␈α
bets␈αits␈α
life␈α
that␈α
they␈α
won't␈αdominate␈α
is␈α
living␈α
in␈αa␈α
fool's
␈↓ ↓H␈↓paradise.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        One␈αdanger␈αto␈αJapan␈αlies␈αin␈αthe␈αarea␈αof␈αnuclear␈αenergy.␈α The␈αCarter␈αAdministration␈αwants
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈αworld␈αto␈αgive␈αup␈αbreeder␈αreactors␈αand␈αrecycling␈αplutonium.␈α After␈αsome␈αAmerican␈αpressure␈α
on
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Japan,␈α∞and␈α∞some␈α∂negotiations,␈α∞an␈α∞apparent␈α∂compromise␈α∞has␈α∞been␈α∂reached.␈α∞ Japan␈α∞can␈α∂have␈α∞no
␈↓ ↓H␈↓assurance␈αthat␈αthe␈αUnited␈αStates␈α
will␈αlive␈αup␈αto␈αits␈α
agreements.␈α In␈αparticular,␈αthe␈αpromise␈αthat␈α
the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓United␈α∂States␈α∂will␈α∂be␈α∂a␈α∂reliable␈α∂supplier␈α∂of␈α∂uranium␈α∂to␈α∂countries␈α∂that␈α∂accept␈α∂the␈α∂Carter␈α∞policy
␈↓ ↓H␈↓cannot␈α
be␈α∞relied␈α
upon.␈α
 In␈α∞the␈α
≡rst␈α∞place,␈α
environmentalist␈α
ideology␈α∞recognizes␈α
no␈α∞agreements␈α
as
␈↓ ↓H␈↓binding␈α
on␈α
them.␈α
 In␈αparticular,␈α
if␈α
Governor␈α
Brown␈α
of␈αCalifornia␈α
succeeds␈α
Carter␈α
as␈αPresident,␈α
he
␈↓ ↓H␈↓will␈α∪be␈α∪as␈α∪ruthless␈α∪with␈α∪Japan␈α∪as␈α∪he␈α∪has␈α∪been␈α∪in␈α∪violating␈α∪understandings␈α∪concerning␈α∪the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓development␈α⊃of␈α∩nuclear␈α⊃energy␈α⊃in␈α∩California.␈α⊃ Even␈α∩Carter␈α⊃himself␈α⊃cannot␈α∩be␈α⊃trusted␈α∩not␈α⊃to
␈↓ ↓H␈↓reinterpret␈α∃existing␈α∃agreements␈α⊗in␈α∃the␈α∃light␈α∃of␈α⊗"changed␈α∃circumstances".␈α∃ For␈α⊗example,␈α∃the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Administration␈αdebate␈αon␈αwhether␈αto␈α"normalize"␈αrelations␈αwith␈αChina␈αgives␈αabsolutely␈αno␈αweight
␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓↓Japan Times␈↓␈↓ ¬SFebruary 11, 1978␈↓ 
pPage 2␈↓↓ 

␈↓ ↓H␈↓to␈α⊂the␈α⊂treaty␈α⊂with␈α⊂the␈α⊂Taiwan␈α⊂government.␈α⊂ Your␈α⊂safety␈α⊂requires␈α⊂that␈α⊂you␈α⊂develop␈α⊂a␈α∂credible
␈↓ ↓H␈↓alternate␈α
supply␈αof␈α
uranium,␈αe.g.␈α
from␈αother␈α
countries␈αor␈α
from␈αsea␈α
water,␈αincluding␈α
the␈α
ability␈αto
␈↓ ↓H␈↓enrich uranium and reprocess cores and store nuclear waste.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        The␈α∂failure␈α⊂to␈α∂develop␈α⊂nuclear␈α∂energy␈α⊂will␈α∂damage␈α⊂the␈α∂United␈α⊂States␈α∂and␈α⊂eventually␈α∂be
␈↓ ↓H␈↓reversed,␈α⊂but␈α⊂because␈α⊂the␈α⊂United␈α⊂States␈α⊂has␈α⊂great␈α⊂resources␈α⊂of␈α⊂coal␈α⊂and␈α⊂oil,␈α⊂Japan␈α⊃can␈α⊂su≥er
␈↓ ↓H␈↓greatly before the U.S. su≥ers enough to change.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        Another␈αarea␈αis␈αdefense.␈α There␈αis␈αa␈αstrong␈αprobability␈αthat␈αthe␈αUnited␈αStates␈αwill␈αabandon
␈↓ ↓H␈↓South␈α
Korea␈α∞and␈α
Taiwan,␈α∞and␈α
that␈α
both␈α∞of␈α
the␈α∞countries␈α
will␈α
have␈α∞to␈α
try␈α∞to␈α
develop␈α∞a␈α
nuclear
␈↓ ↓H␈↓deterrent␈α∂as␈α∞their␈α∂best␈α∞hope␈α∂of␈α∞survival.␈α∂ Considering␈α∞the␈α∂uncertainty␈α∞of␈α∂American␈α∂policy,␈α∞they
␈↓ ↓H␈↓may␈αconsider␈αit␈αprudent␈αto␈αhave␈αalready␈αstarted.␈α The␈αnature␈αof␈αAmerican␈αpolitics␈αensures␈αthat␈αif
␈↓ ↓H␈↓this␈αabandonment␈αoccurs,␈αit␈αwill␈αbe␈αsudden,␈αand␈αthe␈αcountries␈αa≥ected␈αwill␈αhave␈αbeen␈αencouraged
␈↓ ↓H␈↓by␈αmany␈αAmericans␈αentirely␈αsincerely␈αto␈αbelieve␈αthat␈αit␈αcan't␈αhappen.␈α There␈αis␈αeven␈αa␈αpossibility
␈↓ ↓H␈↓that␈α∂the␈α∞United␈α∂States␈α∞will␈α∂weaken␈α∞itself␈α∂to␈α∞where␈α∂the␈α∞Russians␈α∂or␈α∞the␈α∂Chinese␈α∞will␈α∂be␈α∂able␈α∞to
␈↓ ↓H␈↓threaten Japan into becoming an ally against the other.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        Japan␈α∀might␈α∀have␈α∀to␈α∪develop␈α∀its␈α∀own␈α∀nuclear␈α∀deterrent␈α∪in␈α∀a␈α∀great␈α∀hurry.␈α∀ A␈α∪better
␈↓ ↓H␈↓alternative␈αfor␈αJapan␈αmight␈αbe␈αa␈αmore␈αaggressive␈αdiplomacy␈αtowards␈αAmerica.␈α You␈αmust␈αtell␈αus,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓"If␈αyou␈αwant␈αto␈αrely␈αon␈αyour␈αnuclear␈αumbrella,␈αthen␈αprove␈αto␈αus␈αthat␈αyou␈αhave␈αthe␈αnaval␈αand␈αair
␈↓ ↓H␈↓power to make it e≥ective.  Otherwise, we will have to provide for our own defense".

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        I␈α∞must␈α∂confess␈α∞that␈α∂this␈α∞letter␈α∂is␈α∞motivated␈α∂by␈α∞more␈α∂than␈α∞good␈α∂will␈α∞towards␈α∂Japan.␈α∞ The
␈↓ ↓H␈↓sooner␈α∩the␈α∩American␈α∩Congress␈α∪is␈α∩persuaded␈α∩that␈α∩Japan␈α∪and␈α∩other␈α∩countries␈α∩will␈α∪not␈α∩follow
␈↓ ↓H␈↓disastrous␈α∩American␈α∩policies,␈α∪the␈α∩sooner␈α∩they␈α∩will␈α∪reverse␈α∩these␈α∩policies.␈α∩ Just␈α∪remember␈α∩the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓disaster will a≥ect you before it a≥ects us.


␈↓ ↓H␈↓Sincerely,



␈↓ ↓H␈↓John McCarthy
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Director
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Professor of Computer Science